Assignment Task
Task
Currency Crises. Past and Present
This assignment combines insights from all course lectures. The assignment aims to enhance your understanding on current economic topics, related to debt or/and banking crises, by looking carefully on similar events from history.
You should choose one currency crisis episode in an emerging/developing or industrial country and compare it to the ongoing currency crisis of the Ruble in 2022 as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You cannot cover any of the countries that we have discussed in class, namely the United States and China or Japan. You should focus on a large economic downturn (crisis), related to massive currency devaluation, debt default, banking collapse, or hyperinflations; please focus on a crisis period associated with a large economic downturn rather than a recession. You are encouraged to look at/choose one country among the crises of East Asia 1997, Russia 1998 and Turkey 2018- , in particular.
The assignment aims at uncovering the consequences of the latest crisis, but also a past crisis and then understanding similarities and differences.
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1. The 2022 Ruble Crisis
Describe the 2022 Ruble crisis following Russian invasion of Ukraine. Specifically
a. Discuss the main economic sanctions imposed on Russia and their likely economic effects on Russia and the world economy.
b. Present some statistics illustrating the severity of the crisis, its duration, and its expected output costs.
c. Describe the policy response of the Russian Central Bank
d. Discuss the role that China and India (through either their central banks or governments) may potentially play in alleviating the negative effects of those sanctions on the Russian economy.
e. Discuss what other type of sanctions are likely to be most effective to impair the ability of the Russian government to keep financing the war.
2. Past Episode
Using the Reinhart and Rogoff chronology or another crisis classification (e.g., Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crisis Database, IMF Economic Review, 2013) or your knowledge of history repeat the analysis (steps (a) and (b) above) using an earlier crisis. East Asia 1997, Russia 1998, Iraq 2003 and Turkey 2018- seem particularly relevant cases. It is particularly important to cite the works or data sources that you use in the historical analysis.
a. Present some statistics illustrating the severity of the crisis, its duration, and it output costs.
b. Discuss its main origins. List no more than five of the main factors, but focus on the two most important ones.
3. Comparison
a. Discuss the similarities and differences of the two crises (contemporary with historical), and, in particular, policy responses. For example, are there similarities and differences on the central bank responses to the two crises and their likely macroeconomic effects on capital flows, inflation and output?
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